特朗普步步紧逼或迫使鲍威尔留任理事，内部权力制衡战一触即发

Core Viewpoint - The recent actions by the Trump administration against the Federal Reserve have raised expectations that Jerome Powell may remain on the board after his term ends in May, potentially creating a powerful counterbalance within the Fed, despite Powell's reluctance to take on such a role [2][3]. Group 1 - The issuance of a grand jury subpoena to the Federal Reserve by the Justice Department is seen as an unprecedented move, indicating Trump's attempt to influence monetary policy [2]. - Powell's supporters and Trump's opponents may welcome the possibility of Powell staying on the board, but analysts suggest this could create confusion in the markets regarding who holds real power and the direction of interest rates [3]. - Powell's strong rebuttal to the subpoena has led to widespread speculation about his potential decision to remain on the board, despite previous expectations that he would leave [5][4]. Group 2 - The potential appointment of a new chair by Trump could be complicated by the strong opposition to the subpoena, with key Republican senators vowing to oppose any nominations until the situation is resolved [7]. - The impact on monetary policy is currently viewed as limited, with the Fed having recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time, while signaling a possible pause in rate changes pending more data [8]. - If Powell chooses to stay, it would delay Trump's ability to nominate another member to the seven-person board, which holds significant power over personnel and regulatory decisions [9].