俄罗斯终于想通了？俄国内传出风声，中俄能源命脉可以绕开蒙古？

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing negotiations regarding the Siberian Power 2 gas pipeline, which runs through Mongolia to China, face challenges due to Mongolia's demands for higher transit fees and its strategic pivot towards engaging with third countries, potentially leading Russia to consider bypassing Mongolia altogether [1][9][12]. Group 1: Pipeline Overview - The Siberian Power 2 gas pipeline is designed to transport natural gas from Russia's Yamal Peninsula through Mongolia to China, covering approximately 3,550 kilometers, with 950 kilometers within Mongolia [3]. - The pipeline's annual gas transmission capacity is projected to reach 50 billion cubic meters, which would account for over 30% of China's total natural gas imports in the previous year [5]. - If both the Siberian Power 1 and 2 pipelines are operational, they could supply a combined total of 88 billion cubic meters of gas annually to China, representing about 53% of China's natural gas imports in 2023 [5]. Group 2: Economic Implications for Mongolia - The completion of the Siberian Power 2 pipeline could generate approximately $1 billion annually in transit fees for Mongolia, along with job creation and energy sector upgrades [7]. - Mongolia's current negotiations are complicated by its desire for cheaper gas for domestic use, which adds pressure on Russia during discussions [7][10]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations - Mongolia's "third neighbor" strategy aims to strengthen trade ties with countries like the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, which may conflict with the deepening cooperation between China, Russia, and Mongolia [9]. - The potential for the Siberian Power 2 project to be shelved has been indicated by Mongolia's recent development plans, which do not include the pipeline [10]. - Russia has expressed that if Mongolia continues to hesitate, it may opt to construct a direct pipeline to China, bypassing Mongolia entirely [12][16]. Group 4: Alternative Pipeline Options - In addition to the Siberian Power pipelines, Russia is exploring other routes, including a pipeline through Kazakhstan that could supply 35 billion cubic meters of gas annually to China [14]. - The existing Siberian Power 1 pipeline, which has been operational since 2019, has already transported 68 billion cubic meters of gas, demonstrating the feasibility of direct routes between Russia and China [12][14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, Russia remains committed to the Siberian Power 2 project, having invested significant resources over the past five years, and is considering providing Mongolia with cheaper gas to facilitate the project [16].