管窥天下｜金价飙升折射全球央行储备资产多元化趋势

Group 1 - In 2025, international spot gold prices surged from $2,640 per ounce at the beginning of the year to $4,500 per ounce by year-end, marking an annual increase of over 70% [3] - The rise in gold prices reflects a growing consensus on market risk aversion and a collective distrust in the U.S. dollar credit system [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's shift to a loose monetary policy, including three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, contributed to lower holding costs for gold as a non-yielding asset [4] Group 2 - The dollar index (DXY) decreased from 108.5 at the start of 2025 to 98.3 by year-end, a depreciation of 9.4%, which directly boosted gold prices [4] - Geopolitical crises and armed conflicts throughout 2025 heightened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with significant events triggering short-term spikes in risk aversion [4][6] - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, demonstrated a strong commitment to increasing gold reserves, with Poland, Kazakhstan, and Brazil leading in gold purchases [6] Group 3 - The U.S. national debt surpassed $38 trillion in October 2025, representing 125% of GDP, leading to concerns about systemic risks associated with U.S. Treasury bonds [5] - The interest expenditure on U.S. debt reached $1.02 trillion in the 2025 fiscal year, accounting for 14.7% of total government spending, indicating a vicious cycle of increasing debt and interest payments [5][6] - The trend of central banks diversifying their reserve assets away from U.S. Treasuries towards gold is expected to continue, driven by concerns over the safety of U.S. debt [6] Group 4 - The internationalization of the renminbi is gaining momentum as central banks seek to diversify their reserve assets, moving away from an over-reliance on the U.S. dollar [7] - In April 2025, China successfully issued 6 billion yuan in green sovereign bonds in London, with a subscription rate of 6.9 times the issuance amount, indicating strong demand for high-quality renminbi assets [7] - As of the third quarter of 2025, the offshore holdings of renminbi assets reached 10.42 trillion yuan, the highest in nearly 43 months, reflecting the currency's growing importance in global reserve asset diversification [7][8]