美联储1月议息预测：维持不变的概率94.6%

Core Viewpoint - The latest predictions from Polymarket indicate a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, with a 94.6% chance of no change [1] Interest Rate Predictions - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.9%, while the likelihood of a cut of 50+ basis points is less than 1% [1] - There is also a less than 1% chance of a rate increase of 25+ basis points [1] Future Rate Cut Expectations - Polymarket forecasts a 27% probability of cumulative rate cuts totaling 75 basis points by 2026 [1] - The probability of a 50 basis point cut is estimated at 24%, while a 100 basis point cut has a 20% probability [1] - A 25 basis point cut has a 9% probability [1]