INTC Stock Before Q4 Earnings: Is It a Smart Buy or Risky Move?

Core Insights - Intel Corporation (INTC) is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on January 22, with sales and earnings estimates at $13.37 billion and 8 cents per share respectively [1] - Earnings estimates for INTC have seen an increase from 32 cents to 34 cents per share for 2025 over the past 60 days, while estimates for 2026 have slightly declined from 59 cents to 58 cents per share [1] Earnings Estimate Trend - The current earnings estimates for Q1 and Q2 are 8 cents and 6 cents respectively, with a significant increase in estimates over the past 60 days [2] - The earnings surprise history shows an average surprise of 577.1% over the last four quarters, with a notable 2,200% surprise in the last reported quarter [2][3] Factors Shaping Quarterly Performance - Intel has introduced new products, including the Intel Core Ultra series 3 processor and Xeon 6+, which are expected to generate increased customer interest and revenue [6] - There are rumors of Intel developing chips for Apple, which could enhance its foundry business and revenue streams [7] - Despite these advancements, Intel faces challenges from competitors like NVIDIA, which has seen success with its AI products, potentially impacting Intel's margins [8] Market and Competitive Landscape - Intel's stock has increased by 124.8% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 32.2% and competitors like NVIDIA and AMD [10] - The company is perceived as relatively cheaper than the industry based on the price/sales ratio, currently at 4.25 compared to the industry average of 17.48 [13] Investment Considerations - Intel has secured significant investments, including $5 billion from NVIDIA and $2 billion from Softbank, aimed at advancing AI research and development [14] - The company has also received $7.86 billion from the U.S. Department of Commerce to support semiconductor manufacturing projects under the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act [15][17] Challenges Ahead - Intel faces potential revenue impacts from China's push to replace U.S.-made chips and increasing competition from domestic firms [9][18] - The company is also dealing with challenges related to margins due to production shifts and competition in the semiconductor industry [8][18]