Netflix Stock Testing Support - Opportunity Or Trap?

Core Viewpoint - Netflix stock is currently trading within a support range of $83.65–$92.45, which has historically attracted strong buying interest, leading to an average peak return of 30.2% after three previous tests of this range over the past decade [2] Group 1: Current Market Position - The streaming landscape is becoming more mature, characterized by slower subscriber growth, increased competition, and a focus on profitability and free cash flow [2] - Netflix's ad-supported tier aims for 190 million users by November 2025, with projected Q3 2025 revenue growth of 17.2% [4] - Recent Q3 earnings per share (EPS) fell short of expectations due to a $619 million tax dispute in Brazil, impacting operating margins [4] Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions Impact - The potential $83 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery introduces significant overhangs and has led to cuts in analyst price targets, despite average target prices suggesting over 40% upside [4] - Industry growth in streaming expenditures is tempered by fragmentation and rising content costs, leading to investor caution in the near term [4] Group 3: Historical Performance and Risks - Netflix has experienced significant declines in the past, including a 56% drop during the Global Financial Crisis and a 76% drop amid the Inflation Shock, as well as double-digit declines during corrections in 2018 and the COVID-19 pandemic [6] - Strong fundamentals are crucial, but Netflix remains vulnerable to market downturns, which can occur even when broader markets are performing well [7] Group 4: Financial Metrics - Netflix's revenue growth stands at 15.4% for the last twelve months (LTM) and an average of 11.4% over the past three years [10] - The company has a free cash flow margin of approximately 20.7% and an operating margin of 29.1% LTM [10] - The minimum annual revenue growth for Netflix in the last three years was 4.0% [10] - The stock trades at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 35.8 [10]