百万平供应冲击下，深圳写字楼空置率已超三成，豪宅成全年楼市“稳定器”

Core Insights - In 2025, Shenzhen's real estate market experienced a significant supply of over one million square meters, with a net absorption rate reaching a four-year high, yet the vacancy rate remained high at 31.4% [2][4] - The retail property market showed a dichotomy, with premium projects thriving while secondary locations faced challenges, leading to a mixed performance across the sector [5][7] - The residential market saw an overall decline in transaction volume, but luxury property demand surged, stabilizing average prices [8][10] Office Market - The supply of Grade A office space in Shenzhen reached a rare peak in 2025, with 21 new projects adding 118.2 million square meters, resulting in a total stock of 1,284.3 million square meters, a 9.4% year-on-year increase [4] - Despite a net absorption of 66.4 million square meters, the vacancy rate increased slightly by 0.8 percentage points, indicating ongoing structural challenges in the market [4] - Rental prices decreased by 1.9% month-on-month and 10.6% year-on-year, averaging 132.6 yuan per square meter per month, reflecting landlords' need to offer incentives to attract tenants [4] Retail Market - The retail property market in 2025 displayed a "two extremes" pattern, with flagship projects attracting brands and customers, while secondary locations struggled with negative net absorption [5][7] - The total supply of retail space reached 818.8 million square meters, an 11.2% year-on-year increase, indicating a competitive landscape [5] - Rental prices for premium projects remained stable, while some secondary projects had to lower rents to retain tenants, leading to noticeable differences in rental trends across the market [7] Residential Market - The supply of new residential properties decreased by 11.0% year-on-year to 3.5 million square meters, with transaction volume dropping by 24.2% to 3.785 million square meters, reflecting a cautious buying sentiment [8][9] - Luxury properties saw a significant increase in demand, with high-end projects achieving excellent sales performance, contrasting sharply with the subdued demand for entry-level homes [10][11] - The average transaction price for residential properties stabilized at 54,765 yuan per square meter, with a year-on-year decline narrowing by 7.3 percentage points, driven by luxury sales [9][12] Market Dynamics - The structural differentiation in Shenzhen's real estate market is a result of various factors, including location scarcity, product competitiveness, and changing consumer sentiment [12][13] - The luxury market's resilience highlights a shift in buyer preferences towards core assets, while the entry-level market faces challenges due to oversupply and lack of differentiation [11][13] - Overall, the market has transitioned from a phase of uniform growth to one characterized by selective performance based on property quality and location [12][13]