CIMC ENRIC(HK:03899) Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2026-01-16 17:36Core Insights - The green methanol project by CIMC Anrui in Zhanjiang, Guangdong, has commenced production, marking it as the first large-scale bio-methanol project in China, amidst a surge of interest in the green methanol sector [1] - Despite the high profitability potential in the green methanol market, characterized by high prices and low production rates, the actual number of operational projects remains limited due to technical complexities and industry challenges [2] Industry Overview - As of the end of last year, there are plans for 51 million tons of green methanol capacity in China, but few projects have reached production [1] - The production cost of green methanol is approximately 4,000 RMB per ton, while the selling price can reach 1,000 USD per ton, indicating a significant profit margin [2] - The two main production routes for green methanol are biomass and green hydrogen with CO2 coupling, each facing unique challenges [2] Technical Challenges - Biomass-based methanol production relies on various technologies, including fixed bed, circulating fluidized bed, and gas flow bed, with CIMC Anrui opting for the circulating fluidized bed due to its compatibility with complex biomass materials [2][3] - The core device in biomass methanol production is the gasifier, which has faced issues such as clogging due to impurities in biomass. CIMC Anrui has made breakthroughs in gasification technology to address these challenges [3] Supply Chain Issues - The supply of biomass raw materials is inconsistent, and transportation costs are high. CIMC Anrui has diversified its raw material sources and standardized processing to enhance gasification stability [4] - Effective integration of the entire supply chain, from raw material collection to production and storage, is crucial for cost control and supply stability [3] Hydrogen Energy Integration - The green hydrogen route for methanol production is seen as a future trend for carbon reduction, but it currently faces high costs and storage/transportation challenges [5][6] - The ideal scenario for green hydrogen production is hindered by the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources, which complicates the economic viability of green methanol production [7] Market Demand and Growth Potential - The demand for green methanol is primarily driven by international markets, particularly in Europe, where strict carbon tax policies are in place [8] - The potential for green methanol in maritime applications is significant, with container ships being a key demand segment [8][9] - By 2025, it is projected that Asia's green methanol refueling volume will reach 12,364 tons, with China contributing significantly to this growth [8][10] Future Outlook - The green methanol industry in China is still in its early stages, with only 55,000 tons of capacity expected in 2024, increasing to 338,000 tons by the end of 2025 [9][10] - The overall industry is expected to face challenges in initial technology maturity, raw material supply stability, and market demand, with a projected industry scale of 3 to 4 million tons by 2030 [10]