2026年全球风险报告（英文版）-世界经济论坛

Core Insights - The Global Risks Report 2026 highlights a turbulent global outlook, with 50% of respondents anticipating a turbulent or stormy situation in the next two years, increasing to 57% over the next decade, while only 1% expect a calm outlook [14][27][29] - Geoeconomic confrontation is identified as the most severe risk for the next two years, with 18% of respondents believing it could trigger a major global crisis, followed by state-based armed conflict at 14% [15][29][85] - Economic risks have seen significant increases in concern, particularly regarding economic downturns, inflation, and asset bubbles, driven by high debt levels and market volatility [15][34][98] - Technological risks, particularly misinformation and disinformation, are also rising, with adverse outcomes of AI technologies moving from 30th to 5th in long-term risk rankings [15][54][90] - Environmental risks are being deprioritized in the short term, with extreme weather events and pollution declining in perceived severity, although they remain significant concerns in the long term [62][67][96] Group 1: Global Risk Landscape - The report indicates a shift towards a multipolar or fragmented global order, with 68% of respondents expecting this trend to continue over the next decade [2][74] - Trust in multilateral systems is declining, with rising protectionism and national interests overshadowing collective action on global challenges [2][29][74] - The interconnectedness of risks is emphasized, with societal polarization and inequality identified as key factors exacerbating other global risks [60][67] Group 2: Economic Risks - Economic downturn and inflation have risen sharply in concern, with both risks moving up eight positions in the rankings, indicating a growing apprehension about economic stability [34][98] - The potential for asset bubbles is also highlighted, with concerns about debt sustainability contributing to fears of economic volatility [34][98] - The report suggests that the economic landscape is becoming increasingly precarious, with high debt levels and market fluctuations posing significant threats to stability [15][34] Group 3: Technological Risks - Misinformation and disinformation are ranked as the second most pressing short-term risk, reflecting the growing impact of technology on information integrity [54][90] - The adverse outcomes of AI technologies are now seen as a major long-term risk, indicating a shift in perception regarding the implications of technological advancements [54][90] - Cybersecurity threats are also highlighted, with increasing sophistication of cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure [54][94] Group 4: Environmental Risks - Environmental concerns are experiencing a decline in immediate priority, with extreme weather events and pollution falling in perceived severity [62][67] - Despite this short-term deprioritization, environmental risks remain critical in the long-term outlook, with significant concerns about biodiversity loss and critical changes to Earth systems [62][67][96] - The report underscores the need for renewed attention to environmental issues, particularly in the context of aging infrastructure and climate change impacts [67]