存储芯片涨价潮或将贯穿2026年

Core Viewpoint - The current surge in storage chip prices is expected to continue into 2026, driven by a combination of supply constraints and recovering demand, particularly in sectors like AI and data centers [3][4][10]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Storage chip prices have seen significant increases, with examples like Acer's 32GB DDR5 memory rising from approximately 1300 RMB to around 2700 RMB within a few months [3]. - Analysts predict that the price of enterprise-grade SSDs may double in early 2026 due to strong demand for server-grade storage [4]. - The current price surge is characterized as a result of supply contraction and recovering demand after a prolonged downturn in the storage industry [5][11]. Group 2: Impact on the Supply Chain - The packaging and testing (封测) sector is experiencing structural improvements, with major firms raising prices by up to 30% due to high capacity utilization [5][6]. - The demand for advanced packaging technologies is increasing, which is driving up costs in the packaging and testing segment [6]. - Some mid-to-high-end packaging services are seeing improved pricing power, while traditional packaging services remain competitive and less affected by price increases [6][7]. Group 3: Differentiation Among Downstream Manufacturers - The impact of rising storage chip prices varies among manufacturers, with upstream firms benefiting more than midstream and downstream companies [7]. - PC manufacturers like Lenovo and Dell have raised prices by 10% to 30%, while some smartphone models have seen price increases of up to 500 RMB [8]. - Larger brands with better supply agreements and pricing power are less affected by cost increases compared to smaller manufacturers [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Opportunities - The storage chip market is expected to remain in a supply-demand imbalance, with DRAM and NAND flash consumption projected to increase significantly in 2026 [10]. - Domestic storage manufacturers are likely to gain market share and improve profitability due to favorable market conditions [11]. - Opportunities exist for companies involved in high-end storage and recycling, as well as those that can innovate in product offerings and cost structures [11].