TENCENT HOLDINGS(700.HK)4Q25 PREVIEW：INLINE GP;COMMITTED AND CONSISTENT AI STRATEGIES

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a 13% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2025, driven by strong performance in online gaming and online advertising, despite slightly lower operating profit forecasts due to increased AI-related operating expenses [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow 13% year-over-year to RMB194.8 billion, aligning with consensus expectations [2]. - Value-added services (VAS) revenue is estimated to increase by 14% year-over-year, supported by a 7% growth in social networks and an 18% growth in online gaming [2]. - Online gaming is expected to see a solid 15% year-over-year growth in domestic games, aided by popular franchises and the launch of Valorant Mobile [2]. - Online advertising revenue is anticipated to remain resilient with a 17% year-over-year increase, driven by video accounts, Weixin search, and Moments, benefiting from AI enhancements [2]. - Adjusted operating profit is forecasted to grow 15% year-over-year to RMB68.4 billion, factoring in AI-related operating expenses [2]. Group 2: AI Strategies and Growth Engines - The company is committed to executing consistent AI strategies to foster high-quality growth engines, leveraging its user base, communities, content, infrastructure, and monetization ecosystems [1]. - Key AI strategies include upgrading foundational large language models (LLM), integrating more in-house functionalities, developing diverse AI products, and prioritizing internal capabilities over external monetization [1]. - The company anticipates sustainable growth momentum in gaming and online advertising, supported by ongoing AI investments [1]. Group 3: Valuation and Target Price - The company maintains a "BUY" rating and has slightly raised the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) target price to HK$742.0 based on updated estimates [4]. - The valuation multiples assigned for 2026E include 18.0x price-to-earnings ratio (PER) for online gaming, 20.0x PER for online advertising, 13.0x PER for fintech and business services, and 3x price-to-sales ratio (PSR) for cloud services [4].