JPMorgan sees 2026 crypto inflows topping the $130 billion hit in 2025

Core Insights - JPMorgan predicts that global capital inflows into digital assets will exceed the record $130 billion achieved in 2025, despite a decline in crypto markets during the last quarter of the year [1] - The bank's analysis indicates that annual inflows increased by one-third compared to 2024, driven by various factors including retail demand and corporate treasury purchases [1][4] Group 1: Capital Flows and Market Dynamics - The bank aggregates data on crypto fund flows, CME futures positioning, venture capital fundraising, and corporate treasury purchases to assess market trends [2] - Global capital movement into digital assets is a significant indicator of crypto market momentum, influencing price trends and liquidity across tokens and related companies [3] - The direction of crypto investments is increasingly shaped by regulatory conditions, macroeconomic factors, and the availability of investment vehicles like ETPs and futures [3] Group 2: Sources of Inflows - Last year's inflows were primarily driven by retail demand, particularly in bitcoin and ether ETFs, along with purchases by corporate treasuries [4] - Corporate treasuries contributed over half of the total inflows, approximately $68 billion, with Strategy (MSTR) accounting for about $23 billion of that total [5] - Other companies increased their digital asset purchases significantly, rising to around $45 billion from just $8 billion the previous year [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Challenges - The momentum in digital asset treasury purchases slowed significantly after October, indicating a pullback from institutional investors compared to 2024 [7] - Venture capital activity in the crypto space was muted, with a modest increase in funding but a decline in deal counts, reflecting a shift towards later-stage investments [8] - Some capital that would typically be allocated to venture deals was redirected towards liquid corporate treasury strategies, indicating a preference for immediate liquidity over long-term investments [8]