若房价跌回10年前，一半人将亏本卖房！

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the alarming trend of declining real estate prices in China, suggesting that many homeowners may face significant losses if property values continue to drop to levels seen a decade ago [1][8]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Many second and third-tier cities have already seen property prices revert to levels from before 2016, indicating a broader trend of declining real estate values across the country [1][2]. - The current inventory of unsold homes is substantial, with some cities experiencing a de-stocking period exceeding 40 months, meaning it would take over three years to sell existing properties even if new construction ceased [2]. Group 2: Homeowner Financial Strain - Homeowners who purchased properties at peak prices in 2018 or 2019 may find their initial down payments lost if prices fall to 2016 levels, leading to potential losses on their total investment including principal, interest, and taxes [3][5]. - The high leverage used by homeowners during the property boom has resulted in significant financial strain, with household debt as a percentage of GDP rising from 39.5% in 2015 to 44% in 2016, creating a precarious financial situation for many families [5][7]. Group 3: Potential Consequences of Price Decline - A nationwide drop in property prices by over 50% could lead to widespread financial distress, particularly for investors and those with high leverage, as they may struggle to sell properties and meet mortgage obligations [8][9]. - The decline in property values could erode the perceived wealth of homeowners, leading to a loss of confidence and increased financial anxiety, especially among those who view their homes as their largest asset [8][9]. Group 4: Solutions and Future Outlook - The article suggests that stabilizing employment and increasing household income are crucial for improving market confidence and enabling homeowners to meet their mortgage payments [10]. - Enhancing the social security system and stabilizing housing price expectations are also recommended to prevent further declines and support struggling homeowners [10].