工银标准银行：看好2026年新兴市场与大宗商品投资机会

Core Viewpoint - The report by ICBC Standard Bank highlights a pivotal shift in global asset allocation towards emerging markets and commodities by 2026, with a particular emphasis on the investment value of emerging markets and the potential for strong performance in precious metals and copper prices due to their critical roles in energy transition and AI technology advancement [1]. Emerging Markets - By 2026, investors are expected to increasingly recognize the relative investment value of emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Central Asia [2]. - The issuance of local currency-denominated bonds in emerging and frontier markets is projected to rise, driven by capital inflows seeking returns, with some frontier markets likely to see improvements in macroeconomic fundamentals leading to upgrades in sovereign credit ratings [2]. - Specific opportunities include: - Egypt, supported by strong external financing and government reforms, is expected to see a decline in inflation and improvements in fiscal indicators, creating a favorable investment environment [2]. - Nigeria benefits from foreign exchange liberalization, oil sector restructuring, and fiscal reforms, with strong foreign reserves and declining inflation contributing to positive asset performance [2]. - Uzbekistan's market liberalization, undervalued currency, and rising gold exports are expected to enhance foreign exchange reserves and asset return potential [2]. - Ghana is anticipated to resume international bond issuance by 2026, providing market access opportunities for international investors [2]. Commodities - The report indicates that the commodity market will reflect supply and demand changes more rapidly amid increasing uncertainty in the global economic and financial landscape, with a structural differentiation expected in 2026 [3]. - In precious metals: - Gold prices surged in 2025 due to central bank purchases, aggressive U.S. trade policies, and geopolitical disturbances, but may face temporary downward pressure in 2026 as the Federal Reserve slows its easing, trade tensions ease, and market risk appetite improves, although institutional buying interest remains strong [3]. - Platinum's price sustainability is questioned due to structural weaknesses in automotive demand and jewelry consumption, leading to accumulating downward pressure [3]. - For base metals: - Copper is positioned as a strategic metal benefiting from green energy transitions and AI infrastructure investments, with ongoing supply shortages exacerbated by production disruptions, leading to high volatility in copper prices [3]. - In the oil market: - Oil prices are expected to remain stable in 2026 after experiencing fluctuations in 2025 due to OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical factors, with record supply surpluses initially pressuring prices, but a gradual recovery in global demand and declining shale oil production may stabilize the market [3].