Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-17 07:33Core Viewpoint - TSMC is expected to significantly increase its capital expenditure to $52-56 billion in 2026, exceeding market expectations, which indicates an early start to the 2nm process mass production cycle [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, TSMC is projected to achieve record revenue of $122 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%, driven by strong demand in AI and HPC, with a gross margin nearing 60% [2]. - The revenue contribution from advanced processes (7nm and below) is expected to reach 77%, with 3nm and 5nm processes contributing 63% of wafer sales [2]. - TSMC's net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach NT$1.72 trillion, representing over a 30% year-on-year growth, marking a historical high [2]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2025 is set at $40.9 billion, with a more aggressive guidance for 2026 at $52-56 billion, significantly above the previous market expectation of $45-48 billion [1][3]. - Approximately 70%-80% of the 2026 capital expenditure will be allocated to advanced processes, while 10%-20% will be directed towards advanced packaging, testing, and mask manufacturing [3]. Group 3: Market Demand and Supply - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow from $680 billion in 2025 to $1.741 trillion by 2035, with a CAGR of 9.9%, driven by demand from servers, data centers, and storage [4]. - Advanced logic capacity (7nm and below) is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 15% from 2025 to 2035, fueled by AI demand [5]. - The domestic semiconductor demand in China accounts for about 35% of the global market, while its production capacity for advanced logic processes is currently less than 5% [6]. Group 4: Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic semiconductor industry is experiencing a dual drive of "high growth in AI computing power" and "domestic substitution of advanced processes," with a significant capacity gap of over 1 million wafers per month [6]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment localization rate is currently around 30%, with expectations to increase to 60%-70% in the future, indicating substantial growth potential [7]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The ongoing large-scale investments in China to fill the advanced capacity gap are expected to create a long-term growth period for domestic equipment manufacturers, independent of global semiconductor cycles [8]. - Focus is recommended on leading companies that have achieved technological breakthroughs in core equipment areas such as etching, thin film deposition, cleaning, and CMP, and have validated their capabilities with major clients [8].