Black Coffee: Smoke and Mirrors

Group 1 - The average US gas price has fallen to $2.79 per gallon, the lowest since March 2021, leading to an expected savings of $11 billion for American households in 2026 compared to 2025 [3] - The US stock market indices, including the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq, ended the week down about 1%, yet remain near all-time highs, indicating resilience despite uncertainties [8] - The value of US households' stock portfolios increased by $5.5 trillion in Q2 2025, while real estate holdings rose by $300 billion, contributing to a total net worth increase from $176 trillion to $182 trillion [26] Group 2 - Credit card lending has become more profitable, with JPMorgan reporting a net yield of 9.7% on over $200 billion in card loans, while a proposed 10% cap on credit card expenses is facing resistance from card issuers [12][14] - The median US home price is now $410,800, with nearly 60% of millennials planning to spend less than $400,000 on a home, and 44% willing to allocate over half their income to housing [16] - Mortgage rates have dropped below 6% for the first time in three years due to government intervention, which may artificially support the housing market rather than improve long-term affordability [20]