摩根士丹利邢自强:当前市场热度有三大驱动力,仍需夯实制度性基础

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a "good start" in 2026, with unexpected activity in the stock and commodity markets, driven by three main factors: industrial momentum, funding dynamics, and emotional factors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Drivers - Industrial Momentum: Advances in cutting-edge technology sectors such as AI, biopharmaceuticals, and brain-computer interfaces are highlighted as key attractions in the capital market, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1]. - Funding Dynamics: Reforms in the capital market since September 2024 and encouragement for long-term capital investment have led domestic investors to gradually increase their allocation to equity assets [1]. - Emotional Factors: Geopolitical issues have shifted global demand from dollar assets to other assets, resulting in a moderate inflow of foreign capital into the Chinese market [1]. Group 2: Economic Balance - The performance of the market must remain balanced with economic fundamentals, as there are still areas needing improvement, such as domestic demand, consumption, and real estate [1]. - To bridge the gap between market performance and economic fundamentals, stabilizing the real estate sector through measures like lowering or subsidizing mortgage rates is essential [1]. - Supporting consumption and accelerating social security system reforms are also critical to unlocking residents' consumption potential [1].