上海对外经贸大学张晓莉：FDI冰火两重天，北美亚洲增长，欧洲下降25%

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is currently experiencing a period of weak growth and increasing geopolitical competition, leading to a complex shift in cross-border capital flows driven by safety, policy, technology, and ideological differences rather than traditional growth and interest rate differentials [1][5]. Group 1: Global FDI Trends - Global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has entered a "low growth, high differentiation" phase, with developed economies showing stark contrasts: Europe has seen a 25% decline in FDI due to geopolitical tensions, while North America has experienced a 5% increase driven by domestic demand recovery and supportive industrial policies [1][6]. - In emerging markets, Asia has achieved a 7% growth in FDI due to the expansion of manufacturing and digital industries, whereas Africa has faced a 42% decline due to stagnation in infrastructure financing [1][6]. Group 2: Capital Flow Characteristics - Cross-border capital flows are characterized by high volatility, with emerging market non-resident securities investments frequently switching between inflows and outflows, reflecting rapid changes in investor sentiment influenced by interest rate expectations and geopolitical events [1][6]. - The current capital reallocation process is marked by "risk aversion" and "seeking new opportunities" as core trends [1][6]. Group 3: Drivers of Capital Flow Changes - The macroeconomic and policy divergence among major economies has led to a chaotic global capital pricing system, with the U.S. economy attracting safe-haven funds and exacerbating the capital flow dynamics [1][7]. - Geopolitical tensions and fragmentation trends are forcing companies to prioritize safety and resilience over efficiency, contributing to the decline in European FDI and increased investments in Asia [1][7]. - Technological changes and industrial transformations are accelerating capital movement towards new economic sectors such as digital economy, AI, and green finance, which are becoming focal points for global capital [1][7]. Group 4: RMB Internationalization - The RMB is currently the fifth-largest payment currency globally, accounting for 3.17% of the total, with a significant increase in cross-border payment activity, reaching 34.9 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 14% year-on-year growth [1][8]. - The RMB's role in international finance shows a notable "internal-external temperature difference," with over 30% of cross-border transactions settled in RMB within China, while its share in international payments via SWIFT is only 5% [1][8]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The internationalization of the RMB faces multiple risks, including deepening global economic fragmentation and challenges in cross-border settlement channels due to U.S. sanctions and regulatory discrepancies in digital currencies [1][11]. - To support RMB internationalization, it is essential to strengthen the economic foundation, deepen financial reforms, and build diversified cooperation networks through initiatives like the Belt and Road and RCEP [1][12]. - The RMB should aim to become a stabilizing force in the global monetary system during periods of a weak dollar, leveraging its robust economic base and emerging market partnerships to overcome challenges and seize opportunities [1][13].