Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-17 11:18Core Insights - The high-end liquor market is undergoing significant changes as Guizhou Moutai shifts from a centralized model to a pyramid/matrix model, leading to a competitive landscape characterized by "ultra-high-end," "high-end," and "sub-high-end" products [1] Group 1: Ultra-High-End Segment - Guizhou Moutai's flagship product, Feitian Moutai, has lost its ultra-high-end status as its price drops to 1499 yuan, allowing aged Guizhou Moutai to emerge as a representative ultra-high-end product [1] - Competitors like Wuliangye and Jiangxianglang have also developed corresponding ultra-high-end products, with Wuliangye's aged variants priced similarly to aged Guizhou Moutai [1] - Langjiu has established a matrix of ultra-high-end products, including the premium Hongyunlang and the strategic Qingyunlang, indicating early competitive positioning [1] Group 2: High-End Market Dynamics - The high-end liquor market is expected to experience structural contraction, with a focus on the 1000 yuan price range during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - Feitian Moutai's pricing power is weakening, leading to intensified competition among top brands like the eighth-generation Wuliangye and Qinghua Lang around the 1000 yuan price point [2] - The concept of "adaptability" is emphasized, with Moutai facing market pressures that may influence its pricing strategy, raising questions about its price floor [2] Group 3: Sub-High-End Market - Guizhou Moutai has introduced two sub-high-end products, including a lower-alcohol version of Moutai, recognizing the importance of maintaining stability in the sub-high-end market [2] - Wuliangye is also prepared to compete in the sub-high-end segment with its lower-alcohol offerings, while Guojiao 1573 stands to benefit significantly from this price range [3] - Langjiu has positioned its sub-high-end brand, Honghualang Hong15, independently, showcasing a strategic approach to the sub-high-end market [3] Group 4: Market Growth Trends - The high-end liquor market is experiencing "expansive growth" when both volume and price increase, while "squeezed growth" occurs during volume and price contraction [4] - The industry is entering a phase of structural contraction, suggesting that only a few high-end liquor players will remain competitive in the future [4]