国信证券：大宗商品受益于AI驱动资源定价权重构 维持中长期看好

Group 1: Global Asset Allocation Shift - The global macro narrative is shifting from valuation recovery to profit realization, with equity assets driven by expanding profit margins in US stocks, storage cycles in South Korea, and significant debt-equity valuation advantages in A-shares [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market is experiencing strong upward momentum due to a fundamental shift in pricing logic, moving from real estate and infrastructure to computing power and electricity, with AI driving demand for conductive and heat-dissipating materials [2] - The demand elasticity for commodities has systematically increased, maintaining a long-term bullish outlook despite potential short-term corrections [2] Group 3: Bond Market Analysis - The Chinese bond market is experiencing a stabilization phase, with long-end yields under pressure due to historical low spreads and the release of issuance pressure [3] - In the US bond market, strong service sector data has delayed interest rate cut expectations, while fiscal risks are becoming a focal point [3] Group 4: A-share Market Dynamics - Regulatory measures aimed at reducing leverage signal a transition from a "crazy bull" to a "slow bull" market, with A-shares showing significant attractiveness due to high dividend yields relative to bonds [4] - The market is expected to see a substantial rebound in net profit growth by 10% year-on-year by 2026, driven by a shift from valuation recovery to a dual engine of performance and valuation [4] Group 5: US Stock Market Performance - The US stock market is projected to see a 20% earnings growth in Q4 2025, driven by the realization of AI efficiency gains, with major companies optimizing cost structures [5] - The market's resilience will increasingly depend on sustained profit margin expansion rather than simple valuation multiples [5] Group 6: Japanese and Korean Stock Markets - The Japanese stock market is benefiting from governance reforms and a positive inflation cycle, with profit margin expectations reaching a historical high of 9.4% [6] - The Korean stock market is entering a super cycle for storage chips, with profit expectations rising nearly 30% since the second half of 2025, reflecting a significant increase in foreign investment in the semiconductor sector [6]