Longi(SH:601012) Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2026-01-17 12:29Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the value-added tax export rebate policy for photovoltaic products has led to an unexpected increase in component prices, despite the typical seasonal demand downturn in the first quarter of the year [1]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the value-added tax export rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, affecting 249 products across the entire industry chain [2]. - The cancellation of the rebate is expected to trigger a "last-minute rush" for exports, as overseas buyers place orders to avoid increased costs after the policy change [2]. - Analysts predict a significant increase in component export volume during this period, potentially boosting short-term industry demand [2]. Group 2: Financial Implications for Companies - Major photovoltaic and energy storage companies are projected to lose between 1 billion to 2 billion yuan in export rebates annually, which could reduce the profit per 210R photovoltaic component by 46 to 51 yuan, leading to a potential decline in export volume by 5% to 10% [3]. Group 3: Strategic Responses from Companies - In response to the policy changes, leading companies like Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and Canadian Solar are accelerating their global expansion efforts, establishing production bases in regions such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the United States [4]. - Companies are focusing on local production to bypass export rebate losses and enhance supply chain resilience [4]. - The cancellation of the rebate is expected to diminish the cost advantage of Chinese photovoltaic components, prompting a shift towards technological innovation and brand development as key competitive strategies [4]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Outlook - The policy adjustment aims to address the long-standing issue of low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry, which has led to reduced profit margins and increased international trade friction [5]. - The removal of the export rebate is anticipated to redirect financial resources towards domestic technological research and development, thereby improving the efficiency of fund utilization [6]. - The adjustment is likely to accelerate industry consolidation and capacity elimination, with leading battery companies expected to enhance their global competitiveness and market share in the long run [6].