TSMC(US:TSM) 智通财经网·2026-01-17 13:17Core Viewpoint - The global memory chip industry is transitioning towards a "foundry-like" business model characterized by reduced cyclicality, stable prices, and increasing profit margins, supported by various factors including significant price increases in DRAM and NAND markets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - DRAM and NAND spot prices have seen substantial increases, with DDR4 prices rising over 2000% month-on-month as of early 2026 [1]. - The memory chip industry is expected to maintain a high prosperity level, forming a "super cycle" focused on profit margins, despite potential slowdowns in average selling price (ASP) increases after Q2 2026 [2]. - The DRAM spot market is experiencing extreme tightness, with DDR4 and DDR5 prices showing weekly increases of approximately 10%, continuing a trend of 100%-200% cumulative increases since Q4 2025 [6][9]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - TSMC's optimistic growth guidance, projecting a 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2026 and maintaining over 20% annual growth through 2029, positively impacts SK Hynix, which holds over 60% of the global HBM supply [3][5]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with TSMC's technological advancements in 2nm processes and CoWoS packaging limiting Samsung's ability to catch up, as evidenced by Samsung's ongoing losses in its foundry business compared to TSMC's profit margins exceeding 50% [5]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Investor sentiment is divided, with some optimistic about AI-driven long-term growth in the memory sector, while others express caution over high valuations and sustainability of momentum [1][2]. - There are concerns regarding the historical high price-to-book ratios after 2-3 years of industry growth, alongside rising capital expenditures from leading firms like Samsung [1][2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The NAND market may face new supply-demand balance pressures by the end of 2026 due to capacity releases and transitions to advanced processes [2]. - Korean semiconductor export data reflects ongoing high industry prosperity, with a 46% year-on-year increase in semiconductor exports in early January 2026, maintaining a historical high level [10].