Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the interplay between soft power and hard power in influencing oil prices, particularly in the context of U.S.-Iran relations and U.S. military presence in the Middle East [2][4] - The market is currently assessing a dual scenario where short-term risks have eased due to statements from Trump, while potential geopolitical premiums are driving oil prices higher [2][3] - The U.S. is facilitating Chevron's expansion in Venezuela, allowing it to compensate the Venezuelan government with cash instead of oil, which positions Chevron as a new oil seller in the market [1][2] Group 2 - Trump's statements have temporarily reduced fears of immediate military conflict with Iran, leading to a significant drop in oil prices prior to January 16, where oil prices increased again due to geopolitical signals [2][3] - The dual effects of soft power are evident: while Trump's comments stabilize market expectations in the short term, his unpredictable decision-making erodes international trust, potentially diminishing the long-term value of oil as a strategic asset [3][4] - The essence of the oil market competition is shifting from physical control over resources to the management of circulation rules, financial pricing, and institutional trust, indicating a complex interplay of soft and hard power [3][4]
邓正红能源软实力：潜在的地缘溢价依然存在 短期推高油价 加剧能源治理碎片化
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-17 13:19