经观季度调查 |2025年四季度经济学人问卷调查：扩内需、反内卷，激活市场活力成为关键路径

Economic Outlook - China's economy is currently facing a critical period of adjustment, with old problems and new challenges intertwining, necessitating more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to stabilize and promote economic growth [1][7][8] - Economists predict that GDP growth for Q4 2025 will likely be between 4.7% and 4.9%, with a consensus for 2026 growth around 4.8% to 5.0% [2][7] Real Estate Market - The real estate market shows signs of stabilization but remains in a deep adjustment phase, with 79% of economists believing that the market will slow its decline in 2026 but has not yet bottomed out [2][17] - Economists suggest that the focus should not be on a trend reversal but rather on whether the rate of decline can be reduced [17] Investment Trends - Investment is seen as a key support for economic recovery, with 47% of economists forecasting a decline in fixed asset investment growth for Q4 2025, while 31% expect a modest increase in 2026 [17] - The primary sectors attracting investment include technology (42%), large infrastructure (33%), and energy (16%) [17] Debt and Financial Risks - Local government debt remains a significant concern, exacerbated by declining land revenues due to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market [8][10] - Economists emphasize the need for macroeconomic management to address the debt risks faced by real estate companies, which are currently in a "non-normal" state due to cash flow issues and declining sales [10][11] Consumer Demand and Employment - There is a pressing need to stimulate consumer demand, with suggestions including increasing residents' income and improving the social security system [26][27] - Employment remains a critical issue, particularly for recent graduates, with the urban unemployment rate averaging 5.2% in 2025, indicating a stable but concerning job market [28] Policy Recommendations - Economists recommend a combination of fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate demand and reduce costs for businesses and residents [30] - Long-term strategies should focus on stabilizing the macro tax burden and reforming the fiscal system to ensure sustainable economic growth [11][30]