债市何以固本拓新，2026路径全景浮现

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese bond market is navigating a complex environment in 2026, characterized by "fragile growth" globally, with significant external pressures from changing trade patterns, rising financial risks, and evolving monetary systems [2][5]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The global economy is entering a phase of "fragile growth," with slowing growth rates and significant changes in global trade dynamics, particularly influenced by past trade policies [5]. - High global government debt and interest payment pressures pose challenges to fiscal sustainability, especially when interest rates exceed economic growth rates [5]. Group 2: Domestic Bond Market Dynamics - The Chinese bond market is expected to play a crucial role in providing financial support for economic resilience through mature coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, deep structural changes in financing, and adaptation to the "investing in people" strategy [2][5]. - The proportion of indirect financing, primarily through bank loans, has decreased from 85% a decade ago to around 60%, facilitating the development of direct financing markets [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Market participants are shifting from a "hold to maturity" approach to a "trading-driven" strategy, exploring diversified strategies like "fixed income plus" to navigate the current market volatility [3][6]. - The bond market is expected to continue serving the real economy and risk prevention, with a focus on multi-asset allocation and refined liquidity management in the low-interest-rate environment [7][8]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Institutional investors are advised to adopt a dynamic approach to asset allocation, moving from a singular focus to a more flexible strategy that tracks funding flows [9]. - The growth of "fixed income plus" funds, which saw a 40% year-on-year increase, indicates a shift in client demand and asset allocation logic, contrasting with the decline in pure bond fund sizes [8]. Group 5: External Influences - External factors such as technological advancements, abundant liquidity, and improved risk appetite are driving the market's positive outlook, with a particular emphasis on the role of technology in shaping market trends [10].