还在涨！13元猪价稳了？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current controversies in the pig market, particularly focusing on the supply-demand dynamics and the potential for pig prices to rise before the Chinese New Year, despite an overall supply surplus [2]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - There is a notable shortage of medium and large pigs due to previous reductions in the number of large pigs being raised [4]. - The continuous decline in pig prices since October last year has led to a decrease in the proportion of large pigs, as they are less cost-effective to sell [4]. - Significant outflows of medium and large pigs occurred during the winter solstice and New Year, contributing to the current supply gap [4][5]. Group 2: Price Trends - Current pig prices have risen to approximately 12.7 yuan per kilogram, with the likelihood of reaching 13 yuan increasing due to the supply shortage [7]. - The price of piglets has surged recently, indicating a market expectation of higher future pig prices, which contributes to bullish sentiment among farmers [8]. - The overall affordability of pork this year is expected to stimulate some increase in consumption, further supporting pig prices [9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and External Factors - There is a growing bullish sentiment in the market, driven by rising piglet prices and the anticipation of increased demand as the Chinese New Year approaches [8]. - The northern pig prices have remained strong, suggesting a balanced supply-demand situation, which could lead to increased demand for southern pigs if northern prices continue to rise [11]. - Various minor factors are contributing to the potential for pig prices to rise, although significant upward pressure is limited due to high overall supply and frozen product inventories [11].