全球格局要变天？美国仅用3个月跳出“泥潭” ，背后藏着啥大招？

Economic Overview - The global economic landscape is undergoing significant restructuring, with the US and China leading the recovery, followed by adjustments in the Eurozone and Japan, indicating a transformative change in growth patterns for the coming years [1][7] US Economic Dynamics - The reversal of the US economy is attributed to precise policy measures and industry trends, with GDP growth forecasted to rise to 2.6% in 2026, driven by explosive growth in the AI sector and effective fiscal policies [3][8] - AI industry spending is expected to increase by 57% year-on-year in 2026, significantly boosting capital expenditures and contributing to economic growth [3] - The "Big and Beautiful" act is projected to generate a tax rebate of $50-100 billion, enhancing consumer market vitality and stabilizing economic growth [3] China’s Economic Resilience - China's economic strength is derived from structural upgrades and market expansion, with exports reaching a historical high of 6.6% year-on-year growth in December 2025, and total trade value exceeding 45 trillion yuan [5] - The export structure has shifted, with semiconductor exports surging by 47.7%, surpassing mobile phones as the top export item, and automotive exports increasing by 71.7% [5] - The transition from large-scale stimulus to precise regulation is evident, with measures like interest subsidies for business loans and initiatives promoting "AI+" driving the economy towards quality growth [5] Global Economic Policy Adjustments - The Eurozone has entered a policy observation phase after eight interest rate cuts, with GDP growth forecasted to rise to 1.2% in 2026, indicating a potential end to the current easing cycle [7] - Japan faces challenges with inflation exceeding 2% for 44 consecutive months, leading to interest rate hikes, yet economic contraction and wage declines persist [7] - The recovery is characterized by structural disparities, with the US relying on AI and tech investments, China on high-end manufacturing and emerging markets, and the Eurozone's recovery concentrated in core countries [7][8] Future Economic Outlook - The core logic of the economic transition emphasizes the importance of seizing opportunities in high-end manufacturing and emerging industries, as well as building resilient growth structures [8] - The next year is expected to see continued differentiation and restructuring in the global economy, with policy flexibility and industrial innovation being crucial for navigating challenges [8]