说个反常识的冷知识，美债几乎不可能违约，哪怕美国贸易战输得一塌糊涂，哪怕财政赤字高到离谱，美债照样稳得住

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the precarious state of the U.S. fiscal situation, highlighting the unsustainable nature of relying on debt issuance rather than printing money to pay off debts, and the potential consequences of such actions on the global economy and the value of the U.S. dollar [1][5][15] Group 1: U.S. Fiscal Situation - The U.S. is facing a significant fiscal challenge, with net interest payments for FY2024 projected to reach $882 billion, surpassing the defense budget of $874 billion [3][5] - The current fiscal strategy involves issuing new debt to pay off old debt, leading to a projected fiscal deficit of $1.8 trillion for 2024 [11][15] Group 2: Consequences of Money Printing - Printing money to pay off debts is viewed as a dangerous move that could lead to hyperinflation, as evidenced by the inflation spike to 9.1% in 2022 due to quantitative easing [8][10] - If the U.S. were to announce a large-scale money printing initiative, it would signal to global creditors a lack of confidence in U.S. debt, potentially leading to a sell-off of U.S. Treasuries and a collapse in bond prices [10][13] Group 3: Global Trust in the U.S. Dollar - The strength of U.S. Treasuries is rooted in global trust in the dollar's purchasing power, which could be severely undermined by reckless monetary policy [6][10] - Countries like China and Japan have been reducing their holdings of U.S. debt, indicating a shift in confidence that could have dire implications for U.S. fiscal stability [10][11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The article raises concerns about the sustainability of the current fiscal strategy, questioning how long the U.S. can continue to rely on debt issuance without facing severe economic consequences [15]