百万平供应冲击下 深圳写字楼空置率已超三成 豪宅成全年楼市“稳定器”

Core Insights - In 2025, Shenzhen's real estate market exhibited a contrasting performance characterized by significant supply and differentiated demand, leading to a high vacancy rate of 31.4% despite a record net absorption of 664,000 square meters in the Grade A office sector [1][3][7] Group 1: Grade A Office Market - The Grade A office market in Shenzhen saw a substantial supply increase with 1.182 million square meters added, marking a 9.4% year-on-year growth in total stock to 12.843 million square meters [3] - The net absorption reached a four-year high of 664,000 square meters, exceeding the five-year average by 16.9% [3] - Despite high absorption, the vacancy rate remained elevated at 31.4%, reflecting ongoing structural challenges in the market [3][4] Group 2: Retail Property Market - The retail property market displayed a "two extremes" scenario, with premium projects thriving while secondary locations faced leasing challenges, resulting in negative net absorption in some areas [5][6] - Total retail supply reached 825,000 square meters, an 11.2% increase year-on-year, with a cautious approach from brands in opening new stores [5] - Rental trends varied significantly, with premium projects experiencing stable or rising rents, while some older projects had to reduce rents to retain tenants [6] Group 3: Residential Market - The residential market saw a decline in overall supply by 11% to 3.5 million square meters, with transaction volume dropping by 24.2% to 3.785 million square meters [7][9] - High-end luxury properties experienced a surge in demand, with average transaction prices stabilizing at 54,765 yuan per square meter, reflecting a narrowing decline of 7.3 percentage points year-on-year [7][8] - The luxury market's growth contrasted sharply with the subdued performance of the mass housing sector, which faced significant challenges in absorption and pricing [9][10][11] Group 4: Market Outlook - The outlook for 2026 suggests continued substantial supply, potentially exceeding one million square meters, with total stock expected to rise to nearly 14 million square meters [4] - The upcoming APEC conference and ongoing policy benefits are anticipated to create new opportunities for technology and high-end manufacturing sectors, supporting office demand [4]