美国人意识到：贸易战之后，不会再有中国外的大规模工业化国家了

Core Insights - The trade war initiated by the US in 2018 aimed to reshape global supply chains by imposing tariffs to limit China's manufacturing expansion and encourage production relocation to other regions [2] - The actual process of relocating manufacturing has faced multiple obstacles, with countries like Vietnam and India receiving some orders but overall scale falling short of expectations [4][5] - The US decision-making circles have reached a consensus that no other country will replicate China's large-scale industrialization post-trade war, reflecting on historical industrialization patterns [9] Group 1: Manufacturing Challenges - Vietnam's manufacturing growth relies heavily on foreign investment but lacks a complete supply chain ecosystem [4] - India's push for localized production is hindered by infrastructure and policy stability issues, leading to inefficiencies [5] - The US manufacturing revival plan is progressing slowly, with a capacity utilization rate of only 78% in 2025, significantly lower than China's 95% [7] Group 2: Global Industrialization Landscape - Countries like Germany have strong industrial foundations but face limitations due to aging populations and energy transition pressures [13] - Japan and South Korea have completed their industrialization but are unable to achieve high growth rates due to market saturation [13] - Emerging markets in Africa and Latin America have potential but are impeded by political instability and investment environment challenges [13] Group 3: China's Industrial Resilience - Despite initial expectations of a significant decline in exports, China's total goods trade reached $6.3 trillion in 2025, maintaining its position as the world's largest exporter [15] - China's investment in high-tech sectors, such as semiconductors and renewable energy, exceeded 1 trillion yuan, facilitating a shift towards internal circulation and regional cooperation [17] - The dual circulation strategy allows China to balance internal and external markets, contrasting with traditional industrialization paths reliant on external demand [17] Group 4: Digital Infrastructure and Industrialization - China's data factor market reached 8 trillion yuan, supporting production efficiency through algorithm optimization, while India's data infrastructure coverage is only 60% [24] - Vietnam's digital transformation is heavily dependent on foreign investment, with low participation from local enterprises [24] - Latin American countries are lagging in digitalization, with internet penetration rates below 70%, making it difficult for them to catch up in industrialization [26] Group 5: Global Investment Trends - The trade war has increased geopolitical risks, leading to a further dispersion of investment focus, with global FDI flows expected to grow only 2% by 2025 [27] - The trade war has exacerbated global inequality, with developed countries consolidating technological advantages while emerging markets struggle at foundational stages [29] - The UNCTAD report in 2025 indicated that China scored 90 points on the industrialization index, while India and Vietnam scored 60 and 50 points, respectively, supporting the conclusion of the article [31]