Can Costco Stock Reach $1,000 in 2026?

Core Viewpoint - Costco's stock has shown strong long-term performance, with a total return of 52% over the 12 months leading to February 2025, but currently trades 11% below its all-time high, prompting investor interest in potential gains [1] Stock Performance and Projections - For Costco's stock to reach $1,000 by the end of 2026, it would need to increase by just 5% from its current price of $954, which is achievable given its historical compound annual growth rate of 20% over the past decade [2] - Sell-side analysts have set a consensus price target of $1,033 for Costco, indicating an 8% upside potential based on its long-term performance [3] Financial Performance - Costco reported a 7% increase in same-store sales (SSS) for December 2025, following a 5.9% increase in fiscal 2025 and a 5.3% increase in fiscal 2024, highlighting strong fundamental gains [3] - Wall Street analysts forecast revenue and earnings per share to grow by 8% and 11%, respectively, between fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026, reflecting a stable outlook for the company [8] Membership and Customer Retention - Costco has 81.4 million membership accounts, a 5.2% increase from the previous year, indicating strong customer retention and attraction [4] Market Position and Valuation - Costco's stock trades at a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 51, reflecting the market's premium valuation of the company due to its strong brand recognition and cost advantages in the retail sector [9] - Despite facing competition and the rise of online shopping, Costco continues to perform well, supported by its expanding store base [9] Economic Considerations - While external factors such as a potential recession could impact consumer spending and foot traffic, the current economic environment, including the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle and quantitative easing, is seen as a stimulus for growth [6][7]