美国2025年经济回顾及2026年经济展望报告

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy in 2025 exhibited a "front low, back high" characteristic, with annual growth estimated between 1.8% and 2.0% [1] - In the first half of 2025, net exports negatively impacted economic growth due to preemptive imports driven by tariff expectations, leading to a brief negative growth period [1] - Inflation pressures eased slightly due to tariff expectations, while adjustments in immigration policy kept unemployment rates at a rare low [1] - The second half of 2025 saw inflation gradually rising as tariff policies were implemented, alongside increased downward pressure on the job market [1] 2026 Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to enter a new phase characterized by "resilience and imbalance," with GDP growth projected around 2.3% [2] - Private consumption is anticipated to show a "K-shaped" trend, where high-income groups maintain strong consumption while low-income groups may see a decline [2][4] - Structural challenges in the job market, including wage growth disparities and inflation pressures, will constrain balanced economic development [2][4] Investment Trends - The initiation of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle and continued fiscal policies are expected to alleviate investment constraints for businesses and individuals [2] - Inventory investment is likely to shift from depletion to gradual replenishment, while real estate investment may improve due to declining long-term interest rate expectations [2][28] - Corporate equipment investment may also improve due to lower financing costs and tax incentives, although AI-related investments are expected to moderate after previous rapid growth [2][21] Employment Market Challenges - The job market in 2026 will face complex signals and structural challenges, with labor participation rates not returning to pre-pandemic levels [3] - Wage growth momentum is weakening, and the expansion of temporary positions is limited, indicating an uneven recovery in the job market [3] - The commercialization of AI technology may further pressure demand for mid- to low-skill jobs, complicating the employment landscape [3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Tariff policies implemented in late 2025 are expected to push core commodity prices up in early 2026, contributing to overall inflation [3] - The Federal Reserve will face a "quadrilateral dilemma" in balancing inflation control, economic growth pressures, market liquidity risks, and external policy pressures [3] - Market expectations suggest the Fed may continue its rate-cutting path in 2026, but the pace will depend heavily on inflation trends and job market performance [3][4]