国信证券：全球大类资产配置逻辑正发生位移 宏观叙事从估值修复向盈利兑现切换

Group 1: Macro Asset Allocation - The current global macro asset allocation logic is shifting from valuation recovery to profit realization, with equities benefiting from profit margin expansion in the US stock market, the storage cycle in South Korea, and a significant debt-equity valuation advantage in the A-share market [1] - The report suggests a preference for equities over commodities and bonds, indicating strong upward elasticity for equity assets [1] Group 2: Commodity Market - The global commodity market is showing strong upward momentum, driven by a fundamental change in pricing logic, moving from traditional manufacturing indicators to new production capabilities influenced by AI [2] - The demand elasticity for resources has systematically increased, and despite potential short-term corrections, a long-term bullish trend for resource commodities remains intact [2] Group 3: Bond Market - The Chinese bond market is experiencing a stabilization phase, with long-term bonds facing pressure due to low historical yield spreads and the release of issuance pressure [3] - In the US bond market, strong service sector data has delayed interest rate cut expectations, and fiscal risks are becoming a focal point, suggesting a cautious approach to long-duration bonds [3] Group 4: A-Share Market - Regulatory measures aimed at reducing leverage signal a shift towards a "slow bull" market, with a long-term upward trend expected despite short-term corrections [4] - The A-share market shows a significant valuation advantage, with expected net profit growth of 10% year-on-year by 2026, driven by a broad improvement in fundamentals across industries [4] Group 5: US Stock Market - The US stock market is entering a phase of profit margin expansion, with optimistic earnings growth projections of 20% for Q4 2025, driven by AI applications enhancing cost structures [5] - The market's resilience is attributed to the spread of profit momentum beyond major tech companies to secondary tech and energy sectors [5] Group 6: Japanese and Korean Stock Markets - The Japanese stock market is benefiting from governance reforms and a positive inflation cycle, with profit margin expectations reaching a historical high of 9.4% [6] - The Korean stock market is entering a super cycle for AI storage chips, with profit expectations rising nearly 30% since the second half of 2025, reflecting a significant increase in foreign investment in the semiconductor sector [6]