展望2026年黄金市场：价格中枢上移，高波动成常态

Core Viewpoint - The target prices for precious metals for 2026-2027 have been raised by multiple investment banks, indicating a positive long-term outlook for the market driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - In 2025, the precious metals market experienced significant price increases, with international gold prices reaching new highs and a cumulative increase of 64.56% for the year, while domestic gold futures rose by 55.77% [1]. - The macroeconomic environment for 2026 is expected to see a slowdown in employment and inflation in the U.S. economy, leading to a potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and increased fiscal deficit pressure may position gold as a new pricing anchor in the monetary system, potentially allowing it to maintain a premium [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The allocation of gold by institutions is expected to increase, with continued support for gold prices from global central bank purchases and ETF demand [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, global gold demand reached 3,639.7 tons, marking an 11.7% year-on-year increase, driven by significant growth in ETF investment and central bank purchases [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts affecting key mineral resources have limited the growth of precious metal supplies, leading to tighter circulation inventories and potential supply-demand mismatches [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Considerations - Short-term trading strategies should consider market volatility and technical indicators, while long-term strategies can be aligned with global central bank gold purchases and ETF trends [2]. - Potential risks include the gradual release of AI's growth contributions in the U.S. economy post-2026, which could strengthen the dollar and exert downward pressure on precious metal prices [2]. - Overall, the precious metals market in 2026 is expected to retain strong investment value and premium space, with investors advised to monitor key variables such as U.S. employment, inflation, monetary policy, and central bank gold purchases [2].