昔日软件霸主遭腰斩！华尔街集体“叛变”，AI正让Adobe过时？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges Adobe faces due to the rise of AI tools that democratize design, potentially undermining its traditional business model and user base [3][5][18] Group 1: Market Performance - Adobe's stock price has dropped over 45% from the end of 2023, contrasting sharply with the Nasdaq 100 index, which has risen over 50% in the same period [3] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs express concerns that AI is limiting growth among Adobe's core professional user base, indicating a structural headwind for years to come [3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The emergence of AI-native tools like OpenAI's Sora and Midjourney is attracting casual users who prefer simplicity over traditional software complexity [8] - Traditional competitors like Canva and Figma are enhancing their offerings with AI features, posing a significant threat to Adobe's market position [8][10] Group 3: Business Model Challenges - Adobe's integration of AI into its products has led to a paradox where increased efficiency may reduce the need for multiple software licenses, threatening its subscription-based revenue model [13][15] - The traditional value of "skill scarcity" that Adobe relied on for success is being eroded by AI, which makes powerful tools more accessible [15][18] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, some analysts remain optimistic about Adobe's brand loyalty and the costs associated with switching for enterprise customers [16] - The management expresses hope for AI-driven growth, but skepticism is growing regarding a potential systemic re-evaluation of traditional software business values due to technological advancements [18]