ZHIFEI-BIOL(SZ:300122) Ge Long Hui A P P·2026-01-18 08:33Core Viewpoint - The vaccine industry, particularly for Zhifei Biological Products, is experiencing a significant downturn after a period of rapid growth, with the company facing its first annual loss since its IPO in 2010 due to declining sales of its HPV vaccines and increased competition from domestic products [3][8][20]. Group 1: Company Performance - Zhifei Biological's stock price surged eightfold over three years due to its exclusive agency of Merck's HPV vaccine, but has since plummeted over 80% as the vaccine market cooled [1][3]. - The company forecasts a non-net profit decline of 630%-780% for 2025, with expected losses between 10.698 billion to 13.726 billion yuan [3]. - In 2023, Zhifei's revenue peaked at 52.918 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.07 billion yuan, but is projected to drop to 26 billion yuan in 2024 [6][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The introduction of domestic HPV vaccines has led to intense price competition, significantly reducing the market share for imported vaccines [11][12]. - The price of domestic HPV vaccines is less than half that of imported ones, creating a challenging environment for Zhifei's products [12][13]. - The demand for HPV vaccines has sharply declined due to market saturation and decreased public willingness to get vaccinated, with the first-dose coverage rate for women aged 9-45 at only 27.43% in 2024 [16][17]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The overall vaccine market is facing severe homogenization, leading to price wars that erode profit margins [28][29]. - The average gross margin for vaccine companies has dropped by 10 percentage points, with only 4 out of 14 listed vaccine companies reporting positive net profit growth in 2025 [26][28]. - The public's trust in vaccines and willingness to receive vaccinations has decreased, particularly for self-paid vaccines like HPV, which has led to a significant drop in demand [32][33]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, there is potential for growth in the vaccine industry through innovation and international expansion, particularly in developing markets [38][40]. - Companies that can develop differentiated products with high technical barriers are likely to succeed, while those lacking core technology may be eliminated [40]. - The industry is expected to undergo a restructuring phase, focusing on sustainable growth driven by innovation and comprehensive competitive strength [41].