浙商证券：市场修斜率 慢牛更可期 两法可应对

Market Overview - The market experienced a surge followed by a pullback, with a general trend of "strong small caps and weak large caps" observed this week [1][2][7] - The technology sector is gaining momentum, while other styles are generally weakening [2][8] - Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has significantly increased, with most stock index futures contracts trading at a discount [2][9] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The margin balance for margin trading has notably increased, although the proportion of financing purchases has decreased, indicating a net outflow from stock ETFs [2][9] - The valuation of the ChiNext index remains relatively low, and the downward energy model is at a normal level [2][8] Market Drivers - The increase in financing margin requirements by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges has influenced market dynamics [3][9] - Several listed companies issued announcements urging rational decision-making and cautious investment [3][9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a system work meeting, which may impact regulatory outlooks [3][9] Future Market Outlook - Following the recent pullback in major indices, the rapid rise in A-shares since January is expected to slow down, leading to a horizontal consolidation phase [4][10] - The current market correction is not expected to alter the "systematic slow bull" nature of the market, with expectations of reaching a target range of 5178-2440 [4][10] - The small and medium growth style is expected to continue to dominate in the near term [4][10] Investment Strategy - Based on the assessment that "correction does not harm the overall situation and technology growth is clearly superior," the company suggests two strategies: 1. Distributing current medium-term positions across sectors with high prosperity and reasonable price levels, such as electronics, new energy, chemicals, non-bank financials, and machinery, to participate in the market using a "defensive growth" approach [5][11] 2. Selecting relatively low-positioned indices like the CSI 1000 and National 2000, which are favored in the "broad-based rotation" pattern, as sources of relative returns [5][11] - Additionally, the Hong Kong stock market has seen relatively less increase in this round; thus, any suitable pullback buying opportunities should be closely monitored [5][11]