东吴证券：如何理解近期市场的波动

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the market has shown a "spring rally" since December 17, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a record of seventeen consecutive gains and surpassing 4100 points, indicating a significant recovery from a previous low [1][9] - The stock-foreign exchange hedging index is used to assess market turning points, highlighting the divergence between A-shares and the RMB exchange rate, which serves as a valuation anchor for Chinese assets [1][9] - Historical trends validate the effectiveness of the stock-foreign exchange hedging index in predicting market movements, with notable instances in September 2024 and August 2025 where divergences led to subsequent corrections in the market [2][10] Group 2 - The current market rally is characterized by increased liquidity, driven by external factors such as the easing of uncertainties from overseas economic data and the consensus on the 2026 "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on strategic industries like satellite and aerospace [3][11] - The structure of new capital inflows shows a combination of long-term investments, active short-term trading, and foreign capital returning to the market, indicating a robust investment environment [4][12] - Significant inflows into the A500 ETF and a surge in short-term trading activities have been observed, with net inflows of nearly 400 billion RMB in financing funds during late December 2025 [5][13] Group 3 - Recent signals suggest a "slow bull" market strategy, with regulatory measures aimed at controlling excessive leverage and stabilizing market fluctuations, which is crucial for maintaining a steady market environment [6][14] - The Shanghai Composite Index's unprecedented seventeen consecutive gains indicate a potential overheating of market sentiment, necessitating measures to moderate this trend and prevent systemic risks [7][15] - Looking ahead, the market is expected to enter a second phase of the spring rally, supported by regulatory guidance and a focus on performance metrics as annual earnings reports approach [8][16] Group 4 - Investment focus should be on sectors with strong performance indicators, including AI hardware, renewable energy, and cyclical price increases in industrial metals, as well as emerging industries highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8][17] - Specific areas of interest include domestic AI capabilities, energy storage, and advancements in new technologies such as quantum communication and brain-computer interfaces, which are expected to benefit from policy support and industry progress [8][17]