日本找到深海稀土富矿，够他们用700年？摆脱中国的大话说太早了

Core Viewpoint - Japan is attempting to reduce its reliance on Chinese rare earths by exploring deep-sea mining near Minami-Torishima, which is believed to have 16 million tons of rare earth reserves, potentially sufficient for over 700 years of global use. However, significant technological and economic challenges remain in achieving this goal [1][6]. Group 1: Technological Challenges - The deep-sea mining conditions are extremely harsh, with pressures 550 times that of normal conditions, leading to high equipment wear and significant operational challenges [1][2]. - Initial trials have shown a high loss rate of 2% in just eight hours of operation, and the extracted material is primarily a mud slurry with 90% water content, complicating the extraction and purification processes [1][2]. - The efficiency of extracting rare earth oxides is low, with only about 3 tons obtainable from 350 tons of mud, insufficient to meet industrial demands [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Viability - The cost of deep-sea mining is estimated to be ten times higher than land-based mining, with initial equipment investments projected at 75 billion yen and a payback period of 16 years [2][6]. - The high costs of domestic rare earth extraction are expected to increase manufacturing costs significantly, impacting key industries such as electric vehicles and wind energy [6][9]. - Economic losses from a potential halt in Chinese rare earth supplies could reach 6.6 trillion yen in three months and 26 trillion yen in a year, highlighting the critical nature of these resources for Japan's economy [4][6]. Group 3: Dependency on China - Despite efforts to develop domestic resources, Japan still relies on China for the separation and purification of 70% of its heavy rare earths, indicating a significant technological gap [6][9]. - The complete rare earth supply chain, including extraction, processing, and manufacturing, is dominated by China, which controls 60% of global rare earth production and over 90% of refining and separation technologies [9][11]. - Japan's attempts to collaborate with the U.S. for strategic support in rare earths face challenges, as the U.S. also relies on China for processing capabilities [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Japan is exploring rare earth recovery technologies from waste materials, but practical applications are not expected until after 2030, indicating a long-term dependency on existing supply chains [7][9]. - The ambition to achieve resource independence through deep-sea mining may be overly optimistic given the current technological, economic, market, and diplomatic challenges [11].