美银Hartnett：“新全球秩序=新全球牛市=金银牛市”，牛市的最大风险是东亚货币升值

Core Viewpoint - The chief investment strategist of Bank of America, Hartnett, believes that Trump is driving global fiscal expansion, leading to a "new world order = new world bull market" scenario. This framework suggests a sustained bull market for gold and silver, while the rapid appreciation of the yen, won, and New Taiwan dollar poses the greatest risk to global liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Risks - The rapid appreciation of the yen, won, and New Taiwan dollar is identified as the largest risk in the current market consensus, which is extremely bullish [2]. - The yen is currently trading near 160, at its weakest level against the RMB since 1992. A quick rise in these currencies could trigger global liquidity tightening [2]. - Factors such as potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, U.S. quantitative easing, geopolitical tensions, or hedging errors could lead to this rapid appreciation [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Assuming the yen does not collapse in the short term, the market is entering a "new world order = new world bull market" phase, with Trump promoting global fiscal expansion [3]. - Hartnett suggests a long position in international stocks, as the U.S. exceptionalism is shifting towards global rebalancing. In the 2020s, U.S. stock funds saw inflows of $1.6 trillion, while global funds only saw $400 billion [3]. Group 3: Gold Market - The new world order is expected to foster a bull market for gold, despite short-term overbought conditions, particularly for silver, which is 104% above its 200-day moving average [4]. - Gold has been the best-performing asset since 2020, driven by factors such as war, populism, the end of globalization, fiscal over-expansion, and debt devaluation. The Fed and Trump administration are expected to increase liquidity through $600 billion in quantitative easing by 2026 [4]. - Historical trends indicate that gold's average increase during bull markets is around 300%, with prices potentially breaking the $6,000 mark [4]. Group 4: Economic Recovery Assets - In addition to gold, other assets are expected to benefit from the new world bull market. Hartnett recommends long positions in mid-cap and small-cap stocks, homebuilders, retail, and transportation sectors, while shorting large tech stocks until certain conditions are met [7]. - Key conditions include the U.S. unemployment rate rising to 5%, driven by cost-cutting measures, AI applications, and immigration restrictions, and Trump's policies failing to lower living costs [8]. - Historical context shows that Nixon's price and wage freeze in 1971 improved living costs and boosted his approval ratings, suggesting that if Trump's ratings do not improve by the end of Q1, risks for midterm elections will increase [11].