2026年楼市大逆转？板块分化加剧，回归居住本质，别再执着于反弹

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with second-hand housing prices declining for 44 consecutive months, and many cities seeing price drops exceeding 40% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - New home prices remain relatively stable, but transaction volumes have halved compared to the peak in 2021 [1]. - The current downturn is not a random correction but follows a clear pattern based on the internal strengths of different cities [2]. - The disparity in price declines across cities is fundamentally a competition of internal capabilities, including industrial strength, population inflow, income levels, housing quality, and supporting facilities [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship has shifted, with the current market experiencing an oversupply of housing [5]. - As of 2024, the average urban housing area per person in China is 41 square meters, with households owning more than 1.1 sets of housing, indicating a saturation of housing supply [7]. - The demand side is weak, with the home ownership rate reaching 96%, and the existing demand primarily consists of improvement-type purchases, which are significantly lower than previous rigid demands [7]. Group 3: Market Behavior and Investor Sentiment - The previous surge in housing prices was fueled by speculative investors, particularly before 2017, when the price of second-hand homes exceeded new homes due to significant arbitrage opportunities [8]. - The current market has seen a reversal, with second-hand home prices generally lower than new homes, eliminating the arbitrage opportunities and pushing speculators out of the market [10]. - Despite a substantial reduction in demand, the real estate market is not heading towards extinction, as the large population base in China still supports considerable improvement-type replacement demand [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate market is unlikely to see a significant reversal in 2026, and the hope for a rebound should be abandoned [12]. - The market is returning to its essence of "housing for living, not for speculation," emphasizing the importance of focusing on residential attributes for sustainable investment [12].