一个“三高”险种的平衡术：稀薄数据如何为航天风险定价？

Core Viewpoint - The recent dual failures in China's space launches highlight the high risks associated with space exploration and bring attention to the crucial role of commercial space insurance as a safety net for aerospace companies [1][3]. Group 1: Launch Failures and Insurance Importance - On January 17, two significant launch failures occurred: the Long March 3B rocket and the private commercial rocket, Ceres II, both of which did not meet expectations [1][3]. - The failures underscore the necessity of insurance in the aerospace sector, as the losses from failed launches can be substantial, often exceeding billions [3][5]. - Insurance helps stabilize operations and fosters innovation within commercial space enterprises by mitigating the financial impact of launch failures [5][6]. Group 2: Types and Challenges of Space Insurance - Space insurance encompasses various types, including manufacturing insurance, pre-launch insurance, launch insurance, in-orbit life insurance, and third-party liability insurance [6][7]. - The unique characteristics of commercial space insurance include diverse policyholders, fluctuating insured amounts, complex coverage, and innovative insurance products [7][10]. - The pricing of space insurance is complicated due to the high-risk nature of the projects, limited historical data, and the need for customized policies [10][11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Directions - The commercial space insurance market faces challenges such as high volatility, with significant claims leading to increased premiums and potential market exits by insurers [10][12]. - The establishment of the Beijing Commercial Space Insurance Consortium aims to address these challenges by providing risk coverage for multiple launch projects [12][13]. - Future developments in space insurance may include the creation of a dedicated database for risk pricing, the use of innovative financial instruments, and government support for emerging commercial space enterprises [14][15].