降首付新政推动商办市场去库存

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have announced a reduction in the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30%, down from the previous 50% or higher, aiming to stimulate demand in the commercial real estate market [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The adjustment to a 30% down payment significantly lowers the initial financial burden on buyers, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized businesses and startups [3][4]. - The new policy is expected to enhance transaction activity and accelerate the inventory reduction of commercial properties, which have been facing liquidity challenges [4][5]. - The policy aligns with other recent measures, such as personal tax refunds and housing quality improvements, signaling a sustained effort to stabilize the real estate market and mitigate structural risks [4][5]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Commercial properties account for approximately 20%-30% of real estate inventory, and their slow turnover has been a bottleneck for companies' cash flow [4]. - As of November 2025, the total unsold area of commercial properties is 750 million square meters, with office space accounting for 52.34 million square meters, indicating a pressing need for inventory reduction [3][4]. - The demand for commercial space is expected to rise as the consumer economy recovers and the service sector continues to rebound, making the timing of the policy particularly relevant [5]. Group 3: Regional Variations - The implementation of the 30% minimum down payment may vary by region, with local governments having the discretion to set lower limits based on specific market conditions [6][7]. - Some cities have already introduced various supportive measures to promote inventory reduction in the commercial market, including subsidies for purchasing commercial properties [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that cities with high inventory and slow turnover should adhere to the 30% minimum, while core areas in first-tier cities may maintain a higher threshold of 40%-50% to balance inventory reduction and risk management [7].