Forget Blackwell, Nvidia future is Vera Rubin, agentic software

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is transitioning from the "Hardware Wave" of AI to the "Execution Era," focusing on how quickly its chips can generate profits for companies deploying autonomous intelligence [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nvidia's stock has remained relatively flat since the fall, with only a 2% increase over the past three months and unchanged year-to-date, despite a 37% return in 2025 [2] - The upcoming Q4 earnings report is anticipated to be a significant catalyst for the semiconductor sector [3] Group 2: Key Metrics for Earnings Report - Investors should focus on three critical areas in the upcoming earnings report: the ramp-up speed of the Blackwell architecture, progress on the Vera Rubin architecture, and increasing sales of high-margin AI software [3] - The execution of the "Blackwell Transition" is a defining narrative, with a key metric being the speed of production ramp-up [5] Group 3: Supply Chain and Production - Nvidia has reportedly secured over 50% of Taiwan Semiconductor's advanced packaging output for 2026, potentially alleviating previous supply constraints [7] - TSMC is expanding its wafer production capacity to 120,000-130,000 wafers per month by late 2026, which may help Nvidia meet demand [7] - CEO Jensen Huang has expressed optimism about overcoming packaging bottlenecks that threatened high-volume shipments in 2025 [6] Group 4: Future Developments - The Blackwell architecture is currently the main driver of data center revenue, while the successor Rubin architecture is on track for a late 2026 launch [8]