华尔街见闻早餐FM-Radio | 2026年1月19日

Market Overview - The most favored candidate for the Federal Reserve chair has changed, impacting market expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to declines in major U.S. stock indices, widening losses in U.S. Treasury prices, a surge in the dollar, and a drop in gold and silver prices [2] - The Russell 2000 small-cap index reached new highs, gaining over 2% for the week, outperforming the S&P for 11 consecutive trading days; chip stocks generally outperformed the market, with the chip index rising over 1% [2] - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a four-month high, while the dollar index approached a six-week high; gold prices fell nearly 2% during the day, and silver dropped over 6% [2] - The offshore yuan approached 6.96, a 20-month high, before turning down; Bitcoin fell over 1% before recovering to above $95,000, gaining nearly 6% for the week [2] Key News - Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced the import of 49,000 electric vehicles from China, with tariffs reduced from 100% to 6.1%, restoring pre-trade friction levels [3][17] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the need for steady market conditions, timely counter-cyclical adjustments, and strict enforcement against illegal activities to prevent market volatility [4][17] - The CSRC is investigating Rongbai Technology for misleading statements regarding a major contract worth 120 billion yuan, clarifying that the total amount was an estimate and subject to uncertainty [26] Company Developments - TSMC plans to build a "super large wafer factory cluster" in the U.S., purchasing an additional 900 acres due to expansion needs, driven by strong confidence in AI trends [25] - ByteDance released a new generation folding model, SeedFold, outperforming Google's AlphaFold 3 in various benchmark tests [25] - Major photovoltaic companies Tongwei and Longi are expected to report losses nearing 10 billion yuan, indicating ongoing deep adjustments in the industry [26] Financial Insights - Morgan Stanley's 2026 global outlook suggests that strong U.S. economic data will delay interest rate cuts, while Japan's central bank may maintain rates due to political uncertainties [27] - Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts a 50% surge in uranium prices and highlights emerging market bonds as the best asset class globally [27] - The CSRC is seeking public opinion on the first derivative market regulations, encouraging the use of derivatives for hedging [30]