首付比例降至30% 降首付新政推动商办市场去库存

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have announced a reduction in the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30%, down from the previous 50% or higher, aiming to stimulate demand in the commercial real estate market [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The reduction in the down payment ratio is expected to significantly lower the initial financial burden on buyers, particularly benefiting small businesses and startups [2][3]. - This policy adjustment is seen as a coordinated effort with residential market policies, addressing structural issues in commercial real estate [2][3]. - The new policy is anticipated to enhance transaction activity, accelerate inventory reduction for real estate companies, and improve cash flow [3][4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - As of November 2025, the total unsold commercial housing area is 750 million square meters, with office space accounting for 52.34 million square meters, indicating a persistent inventory issue [2]. - Commercial properties constitute approximately 20%-30% of the inventory held by real estate companies, with slow turnover being a significant challenge for cash recovery [3][4]. - The demand for commercial space is expected to increase as the consumer economy recovers and the service sector continues to rebound [3][4]. Group 3: Regional Variations - The implementation of the 30% down payment ratio may vary by region, with local governments having the authority to adjust the minimum based on specific market conditions [5][6]. - Some cities have already introduced various support measures to address high inventory levels, including subsidies for purchasing commercial properties [5]. - Analysts suggest that cities with high inventory should adhere to the 30% minimum, while core areas in first-tier cities may maintain a higher ratio to balance inventory reduction and risk management [6].