华尔街见闻早餐FM-Radio｜2026年1月19日

Market Overview - The most favored candidate for the Federal Reserve chair has changed, impacting market expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to declines in major U.S. stock indices, widening losses in U.S. Treasury prices, a surge in the dollar, and a drop in gold and silver prices [1] - The Russell 2000 small-cap index has risen over 2% for the week, outperforming the S&P for 11 consecutive trading days; chip stocks have generally outperformed the market, with the chip index up over 1% [1] - Micron Technologies saw a nearly 8% increase, while Nvidia fell by nearly 0.5%; the financial sector has cumulatively dropped over 2% for the week [1] Key News - Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced the import of 49,000 electric vehicles from China, with tariffs reduced from 100% to 6.1%, restoring pre-trade friction levels [12] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the need for steady market conditions and strict enforcement against illegal activities to prevent market volatility [12][3] - The commercial space sector in China achieved a milestone with the successful verification of landing buffer technology for manned spacecraft [5] Company Developments - ByteDance released a new generation folding model, SeedFold, outperforming Google's AlphaFold 3 in various tasks [23] - The CSRC has initiated an investigation into Rongbai Technology for potentially misleading statements regarding a significant contract with CATL, which was estimated at 120 billion yuan but carries uncertainties [24] - Semiconductor companies Tongwei and Longi are expected to report losses nearing 10 billion yuan, indicating ongoing deep adjustments in the industry [24] Industry Insights - Morgan Stanley's 2026 global outlook suggests that strong U.S. economic data will delay interest rate cuts, while Japan's central bank may maintain rates due to political uncertainties [25] - Goldman Sachs predicts a new growth cycle for TSMC driven by AI, with advanced packaging becoming a second growth engine, and expects a stable gross margin of over 60% [22] - The demand for AI-related products is expected to significantly boost revenues for companies like Lianqi Technology and Shenghong Technology, with projected profit increases of 52.29%-66.46% and 260.35%-295% respectively for 2025 [30]