Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Chang Jiang Shang Bao·2026-01-18 23:39Core Viewpoint - The company, Muyuan Foods, is expected to face a significant decline in profits for 2025 due to the cyclical downturn in the pig industry, with projected net profits decreasing by 12.20% to 17.79% compared to the previous year [6][7]. Financial Performance - Muyuan Foods forecasts a net profit of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan for 2025, down from 17.88 billion yuan in 2024, representing a decrease of 3.18 billion to 2.18 billion yuan [6][7]. - The company's non-net profit is expected to be between 15.1 billion and 16.1 billion yuan, a decline of 3.65 billion to 2.65 billion yuan from 18.75 billion yuan in 2024 [6][7]. - The average selling price of pigs is projected to drop by approximately 17.3% to around 13.5 yuan per kilogram, impacting overall profitability despite an increase in sales volume [7][8]. Sales Volume and Market Dynamics - In 2025, Muyuan Foods anticipates selling 77.98 million pigs, an increase of about 6.38 million pigs compared to 71.60 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.91% [3][7]. - The decline in profits is attributed to falling pig prices rather than a decrease in sales volume, highlighting the impact of market fluctuations on profitability [6][7]. Cost Structure and Competitive Advantage - Muyuan Foods maintains a cost advantage with a breeding cost of approximately 11.6 yuan per kilogram as of December 2025, which is lower than competitors [9][17]. - The company employs a self-breeding model and has integrated its supply chain, which enhances its competitive edge in the industry [11][12][19]. Strategic Initiatives - To counteract the cyclical challenges, Muyuan Foods is expanding internationally, including investments in Vietnam and partnerships with Charoen Pokphand Group for global collaboration [3][21]. - The company has recently passed the hearing for its Hong Kong IPO, which is a crucial step in its international expansion strategy [4][21]. Industry Context - The pig farming industry is experiencing increased concentration and efficiency, which poses challenges for all players, including Muyuan Foods, as they navigate the current market conditions [3][19]. - The overall scale of pig farming in China has reached 70%, indicating a mature market where significant growth may be limited [19][20].