宏观预期落空，铂、钯期价震荡下跌

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in platinum and palladium prices is attributed to the market's disappointment regarding tariff expectations on key minerals, as the U.S. government has opted for a negotiation window rather than immediate tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of January 16, platinum futures closed at 610.05 yuan per gram, down 3.17% weekly, while palladium futures closed at 469.35 yuan per gram, down 9.04% weekly [1]. - International platinum and palladium prices have seen increases of over 155% and 100% respectively since 2025 [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the U.S. government's decision to delay tariffs reflects a balance between maintaining supply chain stability and encouraging domestic industry [2]. - The current market for platinum and palladium is characterized by high volatility, driven by macroeconomic factors and the ongoing geopolitical landscape [3][4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The platinum market is experiencing a slight inventory build-up, while the palladium market remains in a de-stocking phase, with NYMEX platinum inventory rising to 664,400 ounces and palladium inventory decreasing to 207,000 ounces as of January 16 [4]. - The demand for palladium is heavily reliant on internal combustion engine vehicles, which face long-term challenges due to the shift towards electric vehicles [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that while the platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, palladium may face a long-term supply-demand imbalance, although current tightness in the spot market provides some price support [5]. - The combination of potential interest rate cuts and a soft landing for the economy could enhance the price elasticity for platinum in the long term [5].