Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-19 00:34Core Viewpoint - After the 2008 financial crisis, despite a significant decline in interest rates, global capital expenditure remained relatively restrained, with rising corporate cash reserves and commodity prices lagging behind equity assets. The acceleration of China's real estate deleveraging cycle has further integrated and cleared global commodity supply. The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 and the rise in precious metal prices, along with accelerated AI-related investments in 2024, are expected to push certain industrial products beyond the supply-demand balance threshold. The recent price increases in cyclical goods indicate a trend of diffusion. It is anticipated that global capital expenditure will accelerate by 2026, with "consumables" growth potentially surpassing the previous "startup phase" of AI investments. Additionally, investment demand in global defense, trade, and traditional manufacturing may resonate upward, significantly boosting the "consumables" volume. This marks the first global large-scale capital expenditure cycle post-2008, emphasizing the sustained value of resource and cyclical goods from a long-term perspective [1]. Group 1 - Compared to 2024-25, the absolute volume of AI investment consumables is expected to rise significantly. The current AI investment cycle is larger and denser than the internet-related investments of the late 1990s, with a projected exponential increase in demand for bulk commodities by 2026, particularly in data centers and power infrastructure [2][8]. - The global fiscal policy is expected to synchronize in 2026, with increased defense and public investment spending. This round of fiscal expansion focuses on defense autonomy and supply chain security, leading to a significant rise in "consumables" [3][35]. - The global manufacturing cycle is anticipated to improve in 2026, closely related to the trends in industrial products. Factors such as the implementation of capital expenditure deductions from the "Big and Beautiful" Act and potential stabilization in real estate investment are expected to support manufacturing recovery [4][43]. Group 2 - China's investment and commodity demand are entering the second half of "de-real estate" dynamics. The decline in real estate-related demand has provided a buffer for global demand, but this buffer is expected to diminish as the real estate "consumables" volume approaches its decline's end [5][64]. - The inflationary environment and the "consumable" capital expenditure cycle are structurally increasing the value of commodity allocations. The rising physical demand for industrial products is expected to support the prices of cyclical goods, even amid slowing demand growth [6][5].